The U.S. economy is at “somewhat of an infection point,” Lauren Saidel-Baker told the Metropolitan Fastener Distributors Association.

The 2025 leading indicators are turning up and there is an accelerating growth trend for the U.S. economy on the horizon, Saidel-Baker of ITR Economics told MFDA’s annual Economic Forecast.

Seidel-Baker cautioned that not everything is rosy, however. ITR predicts inflation will rise during 2025 into 2026, which may cause the Federal Reserve to either pause lowering interest rates or lower them by a smaller amount than the market wanted.

The employment issue is  “not the people that can’t find jobs, the constraint we’re all feeling is the jobs that can’t find people,” Saidel-Baker said. At the low point in 2022, there were two open jobs for every unemployed person actively looking for employment. That number has “improved” to .88 unemployed workers for every open job, she pointed out.

Employers must explore the “fringes” to find employees who left the workforce for one reason or another – but even that group is smaller. The labor participation rate among the prime working age groups of 25-54 years old is at a 20-year high.

It will take higher wages to encourage people to rejoin the labor force, which will put pressure on prices, Saidel-Baker said.

ITR predicts that between inflation, Federal spending – currently above PPP levels during the pandemic and debt – U.S. debt is now over one hundred thousand dollars per person, the next depression will occur during the early 2030s. Since that will affect all sectors, ITR recommends identifying safe assets that can be utilized for protection.

There is an upside, Saidel-Baker told attendees.

“Be ready to invest at the trough of this cycle - this is going to be the greatest wealth generating event… of our lifetime.”

Attendee questions ranged from discussing how a worldwide aging population will affect growth to whether AI is being used as effectively as possible right now. Members can view the presentation online. Web: MFDA.us